DID YOU KNOW? DTIC has over 3.5 million final reports on DoD funded research, development, test, and evaluation activities available to our registered users. Click
HERE to register or log in.
Accession Number:
AD0880822
Title:
Development Status of Environmental Information Systems. Volume I.
Corporate Author:
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO SANTA BARBARA CA TEMPO
Report Date:
1970-09-01
Abstract:
This report presents the results of a series of experiments in the field of quantitative international relations. The objectives of the experiments were two-fold to assess the state of the art of those aspects of quantitative international relations that bear on USAF planning, and to assess the feasibility of making quantitatively based forecasts of selected international conflict behaviors. The experiments were directed toward development and evaluation of a system for providing a periodic flow of quantitative environmental information to meet user needs. From a statistical standpoint, the results of the EIS experiments may be viewed as encouraging. Where the data permitted, simple forecasting relationships were developed for periods of 1 to 5 years into the future. In these cases, the coincidence of forecast and actual behavior has been high. From a practical standpoint, however, there remain unanswered questions of the relevance and utility of EIS forecasts to possible users. A basic conclusion of the experiments is that the quantity and relevance of available data resources are primary limiting factors on the current applicability of quantitative international relations. On the other hand, the experiments present evidence that short-term behavioral forecasting is feasible, suggesting that useful application of quantitative international relations is in prospect.
Descriptive Note:
Final research rept. 18 Apr 68-17 Aug 70,
Supplementary Note:
See also Volume 2, AD-880 823L.
Pages:
0201
Contract Number:
F44620-68-C-0077
File Size:
0.00MB
