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VERIFICATION OF MCDONNELL'S MIXED-LAYER DEPTH FORECASTING MODEL.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
A model based on Kitaigorodskys application of similarity theory and modified by McDonnell to forecast the mixed-layer depth was studied. The model applies during the warming season and is based on the theory of similarity. The parameters involved in the model were determined from bathythermograph data recorded at Ocean Weather Stations November latitude 30N, longitude 140W and Bravo latitude 56 30N, longitude 51W. Parameters were evaluated daily and grouped by months. Both seasonal and transitional MLD situations were treated. From these parameters, the form of the dimensionless function PN, claimed by Kitaigorodsky to be universal, was determined by least squares fit to be best approximated by a second order polynomial. Forecasting equations involving PN were developed for each month and tested with data from the following years for both OWS ships. There is general agreement between the observed MLD and that found from the prediction equation based on the last years PN for the same month and location. Month-to-month and spatial differences in PN cast considerable doubt on its universality, at least as determined by the parameters as currently defined. Author