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DEFENSE WITH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK ELECTRONICS RESEARCH LABS
A farm of missile sites is sequentially attacked by m rounds, with each round a simultaneous attack of one attacker at each of the sites. A salvo of area interceptors is used to defend each of the live sites at each round. The defense is evaluated by the expected number of surviving sites. This paper treats the offense enforceable case where m and the kill probability of an unintercepted attacker are both known to the defense. The problem is to find an optimal damage assessment firing doctrine. Recursion formulas in m are found for the maximum expected number of survivors and the underlying optimal firing doctrine. These results are derived by both the exact approach and an approximate approach. The exact approach takes full account of the random nature of each engagement while the approximate approach replaces the outcome of each engagement by its expected value. The approximate formulas are explicitly solved for the case of perfect interceptors and the results are compared to the optimal solutions when there is no damage assessment.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Document partially illegible.
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