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GAMES AND SIMULATIONS
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
The prevailing pessimism concerning the usefulness of game theory for military analysis is premature, and the time has arrived for a second look. The advantage in a game theoretic analysis of a military problem are large. These include the possibility of dealing with a wide spectrum of strategic possibilities, the explicit inclusion of the basic two- or many- sidedness of military conflicts, and the opportunity for optimization. However, for some time to come, game theoretic analysis cannot be expected to deal with the staggering complexity of large-scale military engagements. Progress will be made primarily with highly simplified models. As a result game theoretic studies will need supplemental unpacking and testing. Imbedding abstract games in a family of models whose aggregated solutions are refined and evaluated by more detailed simulation appears to be one promising direction.
Report presented at the ARPA BM/BMD Dueling Meeting on Simulations, 30-31 January 1964, conducted at the Institute for Defense Analyses, Washington, DC.
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