INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES DIV
An approach to estimating the effects of nuclear attack at the local level is outlined the methodology developed to estimate these effects is described and the results of applying this approach in a pilot study for Houston, Texas are presented. Population protection systems in which shelter location is fixed and systems in which shelter location and type are optional are evaluated for single-weapon attacks ranging from 0.1- to 100-Mt against both the at-home and at-work population. One fixed shelter system is considered a system based on data from the National Fallout Shelter Survey. The location- optional systems considered use in-city shelters with strength and location determined by a damage-limiting shelter-allocation model. The results of the analyses of population-protection systems suggest that 1 NFSS shelter, although effective against fallout from a distant attack, may be counter- productive against direct attack 2 a system of dispersed shelters promises huge life savings at low cost and warrants further study and 3 the in-city damage limiting systems while expensive can be efficient against a single-weapon 10-Mt attack.