Inertia and Adaptation in the Sequential Processing of Information,
ALPHATECH INC BURLINGTON MA
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The contrast-inertia model of Einhorn and Hogarth 1987 suggests that decisionmakers revise their beliefs differently depending on the order in which they view a sequence of confirming and disconfirming evidence. Results reported in Entin et al. 1989 support this hypothesized order effect. It has been suggested that the order effect may be sensitive to the elapsed time between information presentations. The current experiment replicated the findings of Entin et al. using a different procedure and longer time intervals between information presentations. Results again demonstrate the order effect predicted by the Einhorn and Hogarth theory, and also show that this effect is robust for longer time intervals. We conclude that the order in which pieces of evidence are presented to decisionmakers has a critical effect on their eventual beliefs, sometimes resulting in contradictory opinions as to the likelihood of a threatening event.
- Numerical Mathematics