Probabilistic Design and Fatigue Management Based on Probabilistic Fatigue Models with Reliability Updating,
AEROSPATIALE TOULOUSE (FRANCE)
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The fatigue limit state is the governing limit state for an aging air-frame. The trend of operating air-crafts longer than their originally planned life, calls for extensive testing and inspection. Current practice is to base decisions with respect to inspections and repair on the durability and damage tolerance methodologies. These procedures make little use of probabilistic methods. The paper addresses the same basic problems based on similar fundamental models. The formulations are, however, casted into a probabilistic format. In particular the possibilities of incorporating new inservice information based on e.g. inspection results or load Measurements in updating the reliability is discussed and demonstrated. The advantage of this formulation is illustrated by some examples. Some comments are made on necessary future research that would be necessary to fully utilize the capabilities of probabilistic methods.