Dealing with Uncertainty in Chemical Risk Analysis,
DEFENSE GENERAL SUPPLY CENTER RICHMOND VA
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For a given chemical there are usually several methods for estimating the risk. Each method is based on different assumptions. Additionally, with advances made in pharmacokinetics, regulatory agencies have come under pressure to re-evaluate their procedures for assigning risk. A tree diagram was generated to describe the combinations of assumptions made by each unit risk method. A subjective weight was assigned to each assumption branch of the tree to characterize its validity in estimating the risk. From this a weighted average of risk was calculated. An example involving methylene chloride DCM illustrates the decomposition method of estimating chemical risk.