A Bayesian View of Assessing Uncertainty and Comparing Expert Opinion
CARNEGIE-MELLON UNIV PITTSBURGH PA DEPT OF STATISTICS
Pagination or Media Count:
A Bayesian approach to the problem of comparing experts or expert systems is presented. The question of who is an expert is considered and comparisons among well-calibrated experts are studied. The concept of refinement, in various equivalent forms, is used in this study. An informative example of the combination of the opinions of well-calibrated experts is described. Total orderings of the class of well-calibrated experts are derived from strictly proper scoring rules. Keywords predictions Forecasters Well calibrated Expert systems Combining opinion Scoring rules.
- Statistics and Probability