The Future of Conflict to the Year 2000,
GEORGETOWN UNIV WASHINGTON DC CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
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The future political-military environment will be characterized by low-intensity conflict, defined as a range of operations involving Soviet special intelligence, Soviet psychological warfare, Soviet support for terrorism and insurgency, and increasing use of Soviet proxies. The primary focus of these activities will be in the Third World, focused along the sea lanes of communication vital to the security of the Western industrial democracies. Still in a period of isolation entered into about 1970, the United States will not be prepared to make requisite decision on defense capabilities unitl the late 1980s, unless the Soviets do something provocative which galvanizes U.S. public opinion. The Soviets will not give us the functional equivalent of Pearl Harbor. Thus, decisions which should be made to counter the low-intensity threat in the mid to late 1990s will be foregone. Major foreign policy decision by the United States could change these forecasted trends. This brief forecast is based three separate year-long studies completed at the Georgetown University Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS. The first two, entitled respectively The Future of Conflict in the 1980s and Strategic Responses to Conflict in the 1980s, were done under contract for the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The third, done under contract for the Army, was entitled, Strategic Requirements for the Army to the Year 2000.