Calculation through Fault Tree Analysis of the Probability of a Warhead Being Armed Prior to Launch,
NAVAL WEAPONS CENTER CHINA LAKE CA
Pagination or Media Count:
This paper is presented to illustrate the usefulness of Fault Tree Analysis FTA, which, when quantified can yield the probability of occurrence of a given undesired event. A Fault Tree is a symbolic logic diagram which provides the deductive analytical means to identify failure modes contributing to the occurrence of the undesired event. As an illustrative example, an analysis was performed to assess the design safety of the MK 76 MOD 0 Safety-Arming S-A device, which is used on Standard Missile SM-1 Block VI. This analysis was performed with the primary intent of determining the various scenarios leading to an armed prior to launch event. These scenarios are made possible only by the assumed failure, or assumed bypassing, of the safety interlocks in the S-A device.