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Issues Involving Uncertainties in Defense Acquisition and a Method for Dealing with Them
PRC GOVERNMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS MCLEAN VA
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This paper analyzes two work processes involved in defense acquisition which are replete with uncertainties. These are the proposal phase and the architectural design phase. Both phases involve a vendor designing alternative system in response to a set of stated and perceived, requirements, followed by the government agencys final selection of a preferred system design and a preferred contractor. Since these efforts many times during the preliminary phases of the acquisition process, many uncertainties are present, including technological uncertainties, uncertainties in the timely availability of inputs, workload uncertainties, and equipment reliability and maintainability, all of which lead to performance, schedule, and cost uncertainties. Several issues involving these uncertainties are identified 1 Do government agencies provide vendors with sufficient information to enable them to design their most cost-effective systems with respect to these uncertainties 2 What additional information should be provided which will enable vendors to do so 3 What credible evidence should vendors provide in their proposals and system designs which can increase the governments confidence that the system being proposed will in fact be delivered within the schedule and cost estimated Finally, a systems evaluation methodology is described and illustrated, providing a recommended way of dealing with these issues. Author
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE