On Reliability Growth Modeling,
ARMY MATERIEL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS ACTIVITY ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND MD
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Military weapon systems are becoming increasingly complex and are consequently requiring more resources in terms of time, dollars and manpower during their development programs in order to achieve their respective reliability requirements at the time of production. Attempts are made during the development programs to find and remove the design and engineering deficiencies to a point where certain levels of performance with respect to reliability and other requirements are met. After the development program has begun the program manager is equally concerned with estimating from test data usually limited in quantity the current system reliability and projecting the system reliability into the near future. That is, in terms of reliability, he is interested in where it is and where it is going. The area of reliability growth modeling is a management tool directed toward those needs of the program manager. This paper considers a popular parametric reliability growth model the so-called Duane Model. Some background on this model will be given along with appropriate estimation and goodness of fit procedures. A discussion of an actual Army application will, also, be given.