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A Peacetime/Wartime Framework. Soviet and Chinese Views of Military and Non-Military Factors in the Balance of Power and Their Implications for the United States

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Technical rept. 4 May 1983-31 Jan 1984

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This report presents a new approach to assessing the balance of power in peacetime and wartime. This approach accounts for the changing relative importance of various military and non-military factors at different points along a peacetimewartime continuum ranging from eased tensions through post- nuclear conflict and recovery. The peacetimewartime approach points to major differences among American assessments and Soviet and Chinese perceptions of the balance of power. An analysis of Soviet and Chinese perceptions and assessments of the factors affecting the balance of power along the peacetimewartime continuum is presented. The analysis is based partly on extensive interviews in Moscow and Beijing by the authors with Soviet and Chinese analysts in June and July 1983. The report applies the Soviet and Chinese balance of power assessments to the Sino-Soviet balance at various points on the peacetime wartime continuum by examining past and potential conflicts. The report explores the implications for U.S. defense programs and arms control approaches of the information and analyses presented. It assesses the implications of Chinese and Soviet balance of power perceptions for U.S. deterrence and warfighting strategies. It also examines the political and military implications of different outcomes of U.S.-Soviet negotiations affecting INF deployments in the Far East.

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  • Government and Political Science

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