The Use of the Delphi Method Within the Defense Department
AIR UNIV MAXWELL AFB AL
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The Delphi method is a new procedure devised to improve the usefulness of an intuitive judgment produced by a group of experts. Intuition is useful for judgments involving a high degree of opinion, such as value judgments and some forecasting applications. Analytical forecasting techniques are compared briefly with conventional intuitive methods, which are further compared with the Delphi method. The Delphi method ix explored in considerable detail including a survey fo experimental results and practical applications. Conclusions are provided concerning the applications of Delphi within DoD, with particular emphasis on technological forecasting applications.
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