Assessing the Risk of Concurrent Operational Demands
DEPARTMENT OF NATIONAL DEFENCE OTTAWA (ONTARIO) OPERATIONAL RESEARCH DIV
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The dynamics of the new strategic environment and increased emphasis on operations other than war have caused Canada to seek a better understanding about how the risk of concurrent activities influences the mix of capabilities that are selected. One approach is to simulate the activation of demands within an analysis framework called the Scenario Operational Capability Risk Assessment Model SOCRAM. The model utilizes a rigorous analysis structure that requires Strategic Planners to specify capability requirements, first in conceptual terms. Then. the conceptual principles are related to force structure elements equipment and units that satisfy the requirements. SOCRAM uses these to calculate the risk associated with each capability, within a force structure, based on the demand generated by concurrent operations. The presentation will provide an overview of the concepts integrated into SOCRAM and then describe how it was used to generate the distribution of operational demands for a key Air Force structure review.
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics