Toward the Development of Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast and Cyclogenesis Modeling and Forecast for DoD's Joint Typhoon Warning Center
HAWAII UNIV HONOLULU DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
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The long-term goal is to improve Navy s operational forecast skill for tropical cyclone TC track, intensity change, and formation. The objectives of this project are twofold. First, we intend to apply the latest satellite products into Navy s operational weather forecast models. Our special focus is on the improvement of forecast skills of TC track and intensity change with use of a new TC bogus scheme that incorporates satellite-retrieved 3D temperature products. Secondly, we intend to develop a dynamic approach for tropical cyclogenesis forecast. To achieve it, we intend to simulate cyclogenesis processes in a numerical model and to understand physical mechanisms that give rise to the cyclogenesis.