Accession Number:

ADA629905

Title:

Predictability Assessment and Improving Ensemble Forecasts

Descriptive Note:

Annual rept.

Corporate Author:

ARIZONA UNIV TUCSON DEPT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1999-09-30

Pagination or Media Count:

7.0

Abstract:

The PI and Co-I are examining mesoscale predictability with the goal of improving the utility of ensemble forecasts at ranges of 12 hours to 10 days. Our research addresses the issues of initial condition uncertainty ICU for mesoscale analyses, calibration of output from ensemble prediction systems EPSs by artificial neural networks, and predictability estimates for precipitation and processes that strongly influence precipitation. The PI also serves as Chief Scientist to Dr. Scott Sandgathe for ONR initiative on Predictability in the Atmosphere and Ocean.

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology
  • Numerical Mathematics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE