Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure: Improved Understanding and Prediction. Evaluation of Existing and Development of New Techniques for Global and Mesoscale NWP Model Assessment
OKLAHOMA UNIV NORMAN SCHOOL OF METEOROLOGY
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I am now in the second year of this grant. My first goal is to finish work on finding reliable estimates of the theoretical limits to tropical cyclone TC forecast error for both track and intensity predictions. The emphasis now is on distinguishing between overall track errors, and position and timing errors at landfall. My second goal is to use both similar and new techniques to estimating the predictability limits of tropical cyclone intensity and intensity change out to at least 96 hours. Given that there remain large errors in TC prediction, my third goal is to identify, quantify and reduce these sources of errors. My fourth goal is to improve the initial state specification for TCs by continuing the development and application of 4D data assimilation procedures, particularly with respect to the ingestion of newly emerging data sources, including radar. Model development will continue through period of the grant as it is vital for improved predictions. I note here that for the third and fourth goals, special emphasis again will be placed on landfalling tropical cyclones, as they are the most destructive storms. My fifth goal is to address the crucial question of how best to evaluate the skill of NWP model. My sixth, and final, goal is the development of new statistical and statistical-dynamical procedures for TC forecasting. The above goals all have implications for transitions.