Accession Number:

ADA626751

Title:

Demand Forecasting: DLA'S Aviation Supply Chain High Value Products

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC POLICY

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2015-04-09

Pagination or Media Count:

246.0

Abstract:

This study set out to provide the Defense Logistics Agency DLA a set of demand forecasting and risk modeling tools and techniques to help both achieve target service levels and quantify the risk of stock-outs in the DLA aviation supply chain. This vision culminated in a simple process that all together takes between 1 to 2 hours to understand a product s demand volume, pattern, probability distributions as well as quantifying the risk of stock-outs. Perhaps an easier way to think about this study is that it became a discussion about buying the right stuff at the right quantity and at the right time. The result of this study is the recommendation of three actions to 1 identify the few stock items that have the greatest impact on the organization s annual budget 2 use the forecasting and risk modeling technique described herein to calculate adequate inventory for the target service levels and 3 execute a lean six sigma project to reduce drivers for the organization s risk exposure. A higher risk exposure influences the decision to carry more safety stock thus creating a vicious cycle of increased material costs.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE