Accession Number:

ADA626706

Title:

Statistical Approach to the Operational Testing of Space Fence

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA

Report Date:

2015-07-01

Pagination or Media Count:

13.0

Abstract:

Space Fence will be a terrestrial-based radar designed to perform surveillance on earth-orbiting objects. Its capabilities will increase the number of objects tracked from approximately 17,000 to over 100,000. Testing a system whose complete set of observations cannot be verified in a timely manner by existing systems presents challenges for gathering detection and accuracy truth data while ensuring a reasonable test duration. We propose a rigorous statistical test design with candidate on-orbit test targets that span orbital limits defined by Space Fence operational requirements. We characterize system performance across the entire operational envelope by using relatively small subsets containing no more than 1530 satellites of the public Satellite Catalog SATCAT grouped by altitude, inclination, and size. We identify the type and number of on-orbit test targets needed for evaluating metric accuracy, probability of track, object correlation, small object sensitivity, and data latency. Our method quantifies the probabilities of meeting requirements, determines how performance varies as a function of an objects altitude, inclination andor size, estimates a 25-day test duration, and determines that modeling and simulation methods may be needed to represent 125 additional satellites. These results provide testers and users a mathematical basis of evaluation for Space Fence employment decisions.

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Operations Research
  • Military Intelligence
  • Active and Passive Radar Detection and Equipment
  • Spacecraft Trajectories and Reentry
  • Ground Support Systems and Facilities for Space Vehicles

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE