Accession Number:

ADA626406

Title:

Determination of Mesoscale Predictability Limits with Respect to Uncertainty in the Larger-Scale Environment

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BOULDER CO

Report Date:

2001-09-30

Pagination or Media Count:

6.0

Abstract:

Our long-term goal is to determine the limits of predictability inherent in atmospheric forecasts due to uncertainty in their initial conditions. These uncertainties are a consequence of inaccuracies of observational data and the algorithms that produce 3-dimensional analysis. Even if a model can simulate atmospheric behavior perfectly, since atmospheric flows exhibit instabilities leading to chaos, any errors in a forecasts initial condition will tend to grow, until information content of the forecast is negligible. The result is a limit to predictability.

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE