Determination of Mesoscale Predictability Limits with Respect to Uncertainty in the Larger-Scale Environment
NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BOULDER CO
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Our long-term goal is to determine the limits of predictability inherent in atmospheric forecasts due to uncertainty in their initial conditions. These uncertainties are a consequence of inaccuracies of observational data and the algorithms that produce 3-dimensional analysis. Even if a model can simulate atmospheric behavior perfectly, since atmospheric flows exhibit instabilities leading to chaos, any errors in a forecasts initial condition will tend to grow, until information content of the forecast is negligible. The result is a limit to predictability.