Accession Number:

ADA626282

Title:

Minimizing the Discrepancy between Simulated and Historical Failures in Turbine Engines: A Simulation-Based Optimization Method (Postprint)

Descriptive Note:

Journal article

Corporate Author:

TEXAS UNIV AT SAN ANTONIO

Report Date:

2015-01-01

Pagination or Media Count:

14.0

Abstract:

The reliability modeling of a module in a turbine engine requires knowledge of its failure rate, which can be estimated by identifying statistical distributions describing the percentage of failure per component within the turbine module. The correct definition of the failure statistical behavior per component is highly dependent on the engineer skills and may present significant discrepancies with respect to the historical data. There is no formal methodology to approach this problem and a large number of labor hours are spent trying to reduce the discrepancy by manually adjusting the distributions parameters. This paper addresses this problem and provides a simulation-based optimization method for the minimization of the discrepancy between the simulated and the historical percentage of failures for turbine engine components. The proposed methodology optimizes the parameter values of the components failure statistical distributions within the components likelihood confidence bounds. A complete testing of the proposed method is performed on a turbine engine case study. The method can be considered as a decision making tool for maintenance, repair, and overhaul companies and will potentially reduce the cost of labor associated to finding the appropriate value of the distribution parameters for each componentfailure mode in the model and increase the accuracy in the prediction of the mean time to failures MTTF.

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Mechanics
  • Jet and Gas Turbine Engines

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE