Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure: Improved Understanding and Prediction. Evaluation of Existing and Development of New Techniques for Global and Mesoscale NWP Model Assessment
NEW SOUTH WALES UNIV SYDNEY (AUSTRALIA) SCHOOL OF MATHEMATICS
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This is the first year of a new grant and the long-term goals are as follows. First, I will continue to work on the problem of estimating the theoretical limits to tropical cyclone track errors. My previous ONR grant revealed that there was at least a possible halving of the present errors in mean absolute track errors over most TC basins. This is clearly a sizeable error and its reduction should continue to be addressed. My second goal is to apply similar techniques, and possible new approaches, to the predictability of tropical cyclone intensity out to at least 96 hours.
- Numerical Mathematics