Accession Number:

ADA625671

Title:

Predictability Assessment and Improving Ensemble Forecasts

Descriptive Note:

Annual rept.

Corporate Author:

ARIZONA UNIV TUCSON DEPT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2001-09-30

Pagination or Media Count:

8.0

Abstract:

The PI is examining atmospheric predictability with the goal of improving ensemble forecasts at ranges of 12 hours to 10 days. The research is addressing several issues, including a Documentation of analysis uncertainty from mesoscale and global analyses. b Calibration of ensemble forecast system EFS output by artificial neural networks. c Design of optimal EFSs, with an emphasis on precipitation forecasts. d Design of stochastic physics parameterizations that improve under-dispersion in EFS s.

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology
  • Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE