Predictability Assessment and Improving Ensemble Forecasts
ARIZONA UNIV TUCSON DEPT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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The PI is examining atmospheric predictability with the goal of improving ensemble forecasts at ranges of 12 hours to 10 days. The research is addressing several issues, including a Documentation of analysis uncertainty from mesoscale and global analyses. b Calibration of ensemble forecast system EFS output by artificial neural networks. c Design of optimal EFSs, with an emphasis on precipitation forecasts. d Design of stochastic physics parameterizations that improve under-dispersion in EFS s.
- Statistics and Probability