Statistical Prediction of Ocean Circulation and Trajectories
INSTITUTE OF OCEAN SCIENCES SIDNEY (CANADA)
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Our goals are to develop efficient means for statistically forecasting ocean currents and Lagrangian trajectories. Objectives are to formulate and test methods for predicting flows and trajectories that represent evolution of uncertainty and feedback of the uncertain component upon the mean. Such statistical predictions can be obtained via ensemble forecasts, but these are computationally expensive and suffer from statistical noise due to finite ensemble size. We seek statistical forecast methods that avoid these difficulties, guided by statistical mechanical theory and numerical investigation of quasi-geostrophic qg flow statistics. Anticipating application to more realistic flows, we have sought to extend statistical mechanics beyond qg to the case of finite-amplitude topography.
- Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
- Statistics and Probability