Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting With Theoretically-Based Statistical Models, Year 3
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA
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The goal of this research is to improve tropical cyclone intensity prediction through a theoretical study of the hurricane inner core i.e., within 100-km, the role of ocean structure on hurricane intensity, and the incorporation of those results in a simplified intensity prediction system. The intensity prediction system will be tested in an operational framework in the western North Pacific and provided to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center JTWC for evaluation. The intensity model is based on the statistical-dynamical logistic growth equation model LGEM, which has generally been the most accurate operational intensity model in the Atlantic basin during the last several hurricane seasons.
- Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
- Statistics and Probability