Combining Satellite Ocean Color and Hydrodynamic Model Uncertainties in Bio-Optical Forecasts
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV
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We describe an approach to produce short-term forecasts of bio-optical properties by coupling satellite ocean color imagery with a hydrodynamic model. The bio-optical property is treated as a conservative tracer the satellite distribution is advected forward in time using the current field from the model. Uncertainties in both the satellite chlorophyll values and the currents from the circulation model impact the final forecast we apply ensemble techniques to quantify the errors separately and in combination. For the ocean color imagery, we further apply ensemble techniques to partition the chlorophyll uncertainties into components due to atmospheric correction and bio-optical inversion. By combining the satellite model ensemble sets, we produce a final chlorophyll forecast field and associated uncertainty map that includes both sets of uncertainties. We examine ensemble metrics to assess predictive value. This work represents a significant advancement in representing errors associated with satellite ocean color imagery and bio-optical forecasts.
- Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
- Fluid Mechanics