Validation Test Report for the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System as a Fractures/Leads and Polynyas Product
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV
Pagination or Media Count:
This document serves as the Validation Test Report VTR for the Naval Research Laboratory NRL Arctic Cap NowcastForecast System ACNFS ability to capture and predict sea ice areas of opening FracturesLeads, And Polynyas FLAP. ACNFS calculates motion rates opening closing, ridging, divergence, and shear in addition to numerous other products such as ice concentration, ice thickness, and ice drift. A combination of these parameters is used to produce a product of opening rates that represent areas of FLAPs. This VTR documents a series of comparison studies performed using ACNFS strain rate fields and validates the opening rate products against an 11 month period of National Ice Center NIC FLAP messages from January through November 2012. Forecasted ACNFS fields are evaluated for the period of February through June 2014 on daily 24 hours through 7-day forecasts. Additional comparisons are shown for ICEX-2014. This validation assessment was performed using ACNFS with some limited comparisons with the Global Ocean Forecast System GOFS 3.1. GOFS 3.1 uses the same ocean model coupling and sea ice model as ACNFS and is expected to perform similarly. Overall, ACNFS along with GOFS 3.1 provided a reasonable prediction of the openings not available elsewhere in both the nowcast and forecast mode and performed better than persistence.
- Snow, Ice and Permafrost