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Accession Number:
ADA621030
Title:
Development of Empirically Based Time-to-death Curves for Combat Casualty Deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan
Descriptive Note:
Journal article
Corporate Author:
NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER SAN DIEGO CA
Report Date:
2015-01-01
Pagination or Media Count:
14.0
Abstract:
The United States Department of Defense medical planners need survival-time estimates for anticipated patient streams associated with projected combat scenarios. Survival-time estimates should be grounded in empirical observations. Unfortunately, research in this domain has been limited to a single paper describing the development of died-of-wounds curves for combat casualties with life-threatening injuries. The curves developed from that research were based on a small dataset n 160, with 26 deaths and 134 survivors of forward surgical Role II casualties and subject matter experts judgments. This paper reports the first empirically based time-to-death curves for combat casualties based on a large sample. The results indicate that survival time varied across roles of care at which casualties died but was at most weakly associated with injury severity. Time-to-death curves were, therefore, developed for the overall study population of valid times to death and for Role I, Role II and Role III care. The log-logistic probability distribution provided the best representation of the survival times for the overall study population, while the log-normal distribution was the best choice for Role I, Role II and Role III care. The proposed time-to-death curves should refine the survival-time estimates used in combat medical logistics planning.
Distribution Statement:
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
