Accession Number:

ADA621030

Title:

Development of Empirically Based Time-to-death Curves for Combat Casualty Deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan

Descriptive Note:

Journal article

Corporate Author:

NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER SAN DIEGO CA

Report Date:

2015-01-01

Pagination or Media Count:

14.0

Abstract:

The United States Department of Defense medical planners need survival-time estimates for anticipated patient streams associated with projected combat scenarios. Survival-time estimates should be grounded in empirical observations. Unfortunately, research in this domain has been limited to a single paper describing the development of died-of-wounds curves for combat casualties with life-threatening injuries. The curves developed from that research were based on a small dataset n 160, with 26 deaths and 134 survivors of forward surgical Role II casualties and subject matter experts judgments. This paper reports the first empirically based time-to-death curves for combat casualties based on a large sample. The results indicate that survival time varied across roles of care at which casualties died but was at most weakly associated with injury severity. Time-to-death curves were, therefore, developed for the overall study population of valid times to death and for Role I, Role II and Role III care. The log-logistic probability distribution provided the best representation of the survival times for the overall study population, while the log-normal distribution was the best choice for Role I, Role II and Role III care. The proposed time-to-death curves should refine the survival-time estimates used in combat medical logistics planning.

Subject Categories:

  • Anatomy and Physiology
  • Medical Facilities, Equipment and Supplies
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE