Accession Number:

ADA619788

Title:

Quantitative Risks

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

WAYNE STATE UNIV DETROIT MI

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2015-02-24

Pagination or Media Count:

39.0

Abstract:

The goals of this project are to develop, verify, and validate methods, procedures, and tools that provide objective, quantified indicators of acquisition program cost, schedule, and performance risk. It builds on prior empirical analyses of system development indicators. The goal MPTs should provide an integrated approach toward risk exposure analysis using risk leading indicators and risk estimating relationships. The primary products are 1 a set risk leading indicators calculated from standard program documents, and 2 methods to calibrate and baseline the risk leading indicators and program outcomes. Secondary products are 3 Request for Proposal RFP language to improve risk exposure during Engineering and Manufacturing Development EMD, and 4 recommendations for collecting and sharing data to calibratebaseline risk estimating relationships across programs. Significant developments of this phase are specifying risk leading indicators related to root causes of adverse acquisition outcome and detectable in program documentation, producing a structure and method to provide integrated risk exposure analysis for acquisition and contract data, and specifying a process to calibrate the expected impacts. Development plans are to demonstrating, testing and evaluating the risk leading indicators and risk exposure calibration methods to assess practicality, feasibility, relevance and significance via application to acquisition programs.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Operations Research
  • Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering and Control of Production Systems
  • Test Facilities, Equipment and Methods

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE