Accession Number:

ADA617603

Title:

Optimal Vaccination in a Stochastic Epidemic Model of Two Non-Interacting Populations

Descriptive Note:

Journal article

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH

Report Date:

2015-02-17

Pagination or Media Count:

26.0

Abstract:

Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally efficient algorithm that enables us to calculate the complete probability distribution for the final epidemic size in a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered SIR model. Based on these results, we determine the optimal allocations of a limited quantity of vaccine between two non-interacting populations. We compare the stochastic solution to results obtained for the traditional, deterministic SIR model. For intermediate quantities of vaccine, the deterministic model is a poor estimate of the optimal strategy for the more realistic, stochastic case.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Medicine and Medical Research
  • Medical Facilities, Equipment and Supplies
  • Operations Research

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE