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Exploiting the Magnetic Origin of Solar Activity in Forecasting Thermospheric Density Variations
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB WASHINGTON DC SPACE SCIENCE DIV
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A detailed understanding of solar irradiance and its variability at extreme ultraviolet EUV wavelengths is required to model thermospheric density and to specify and forecast satellite drag. Current operational models rely on forecasts of proxies for solar activity based on autoregression. The forecasts from these models generally degrade to climatology after only a few days. Solar magnetic fields are ultimately responsible for variations in the EUV irradiance. The evolution of solar magnetic fields is well understood and results from a combination of solar rotation, diffusion, meridional flow, and magnetic flux emergence. In this presentation we review the current state of autoregressive proxy models and compare their forecast skill against new activity models based on magnetic flux transport.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE