Accession Number:

ADA616953

Title:

Exploiting the Magnetic Origin of Solar Activity in Forecasting Thermospheric Density Variations

Descriptive Note:

Conference paper

Corporate Author:

NAVAL RESEARCH LAB WASHINGTON DC SPACE SCIENCE DIV

Personal Author(s):

• Warren, Harry
• Emmert, John

Report Date:

2014-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

10.0

Abstract:

A detailed understanding of solar irradiance and its variability at extreme ultraviolet EUV wavelengths is required to model thermospheric density and to specify and forecast satellite drag. Current operational models rely on forecasts of proxies for solar activity based on autoregression. The forecasts from these models generally degrade to climatology after only a few days. Solar magnetic fields are ultimately responsible for variations in the EUV irradiance. The evolution of solar magnetic fields is well understood and results from a combination of solar rotation, diffusion, meridional flow, and magnetic flux emergence. In this presentation we review the current state of autoregressive proxy models and compare their forecast skill against new activity models based on magnetic flux transport.

Descriptors:

• *SOLAR ACTIVITY
• ATMOSPHERIC DENSITY
• CLIMATOLOGY
• FORECASTING
• MAGNETIC FIELDS
• THERMOSPHERE
• ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION

Subject Categories:

• Astrophysics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE