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Case-based Influence in Conflict Management
Final rept. 15 Sep 2010-14 Sep 2014
ARTIS RESEARCH AND RISK MODELING CAVE CREEK AZ
Pagination or Media Count:
The project proceeded in three phases. The first phase analyzed how historical analogies are used to make sense of novel events, comparing historical analogies invoked in three events in newspapers from five countries. Case-based reasoning was found to be very common, with almost one historical analogy per article 9631061. The second phase of this project was inspired by a desire of CyberCom to study how historical analogies might be relevant to cyber conflict. The result was a case-by-case analysis of 35 different analogies with the lessons for the understanding of potential cyber conflict. Analogies such as these can serve several purposes to motivate by fear or inspiration, to demonstrate what is possible, to provide examples from the past of things to avoid, and to illuminate particular features of past events that might be worth thinking about in preparation for cyber conflict. The third phase of the project was motivated by the fact that it took 15 years, from 1945 to 1960, to understand the strategic implications of nuclear technology. The goal was to help avoid a similar delay in understanding the strategic implications of cyber technology. The result was a mathematical model for the strategic analysis of the timing of cyber conflict that quickly received attention from over 30 countries.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE