Cascading Effects of Fuel Network Interdiction
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
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This thesis develops the Fuel Interdiction and Resulting Cascading Effects FIRCE model. The study details the development and experimental testing of a framework for assessing the interdiction of a refined petroleum production and distribution network. FIRCE uses a maximum flow mathematical programming formulation that models the transit of fuels from points of importation and refinement through a polyduct distribution network for delivery across a range of end user locations. The automated model accommodates networks of varying size and complexity. FIRCE allows for parameters and factor settings that enable robust experimentation through implementation in MATLAB 2014 and the commercial solver CPLEX Version 12.5. Experimental design allows the investigation of interdiction or disruption on supply and network infrastructure locations in order to support the strategic analytical needs of the user. Given a target set, FIRCE provides measured responses for the resulting fuel availability and a valuation of economic loss. The value of economic loss feeds a Leontief based input-output model that assesses the cascading effects in the studied economy by implementing a mathematical program that optimizes the remaining industrial outputs. FIRCE demonstrates a framework to investigate the military and cascading effects of a fuel interdiction campaign plan using a realistic case study.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Operations Research