Accession Number:

ADA615505

Title:

Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Variations of Subjective Logic Deduction

Descriptive Note:

Conference paper

Corporate Author:

ARMY RESEARCH LAB ADELPHI MD

Report Date:

2013-07-01

Pagination or Media Count:

9.0

Abstract:

This work develops alternatives to the classical subjective logic deduction operator. Given antecedent and consequent propositions, the new operators form opinions of the consequent that match the variance of the consequent posterior distribution given opinions on the antecedent and the conditional rules connecting the antecedent with the consequent. As a result, the uncertainty of the consequent actually map to the spread for the probability projection of the opinion. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate this connection for the new operators. Finally, the work uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the quality of fusing opinions from multiple agents before and after deduction.

Subject Categories:

  • Psychology
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Operations Research

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE