Suitability Analysis of Continuous-Use Reliability Growth Projection Models
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
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Substandard system reliability is one of the leading causes of increased Operations and Maintenance OM costs as noted in several recent National Research Council reports. Between 2006 and 2011, Director Operational Test Evaluation noted 26 of 52 Department of Defense acquisition programs failed to meet reliability thresholds, but were approved, leading to degraded operational performance, increased OM costs, and increased safety risks for personnel involved. As a system is developed from prototype to final product, structural changes and design flaws are corrected, leading to an increase in system reliability, called reliability growth. Due to the nature of the system changes, standard forecasting methods cannot be applied, and a class of reliability growth models is used to estimate the change in reliability over multiple stages. Despite the significant impact of reliability growth projection, little research has been accomplished on comparing the robustness of various reliability growth models.
- Economics and Cost Analysis