Accession Number:

ADA614679

Title:

Engineering Decisions Under Risk-Averseness

Descriptive Note:

Journal article preprint

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH

Report Date:

2014-12-19

Pagination or Media Count:

25.0

Abstract:

Engineering decisions are invariably made under substantial uncertainty about current and future system cost and response, including cost and response associated with low-probability, high-consequence events. A risk-neutral decision maker would rely on expected values when comparing designs, while a risk-averse decision maker might adopt nonlinear utility functions or failure probability criteria. The paper shows that these models for making decisions are related to a framework of risk measures that includes many possibilities. We describe how risk measures provide an expanded set of models for handling risk-averse decision makers. General recommendations for selecting risk measures lead to decision models for risk-averse decision making that comprehensively represent risks in engineering systems, avoid paradoxes, and accrue substantial benefits in subsequent risk, reliability, and cost optimization. The paper provides an overview of the framework of decision making based on risk measures.

Subject Categories:

  • Operations Research

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE