Forecasting DoD Mid-Acquisition Space Program Final Costs Using WBS Level 2 and 3 Data
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
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Predicting Estimates at Complete EAC for Department of Defense DoD space programs has proven to be a daunting task. Although the use of Earned Value Management EVM formulations have been around for several decades, research has validated the need to conduct specific investigations based on commodity type and contract completion percentage. A recent Air Force Cost Analysis Agency AFCAA study improved space program EAC accuracy using a Budgeted Cost of Work Performed BCWP model. This research was conducted based exclusively on program level Work Breakdown Structure WBS data. The DoD requires contractors to report lower level WBS data, and current guidance supports the notion that lower level data are useful for program analysis. This study assesses the BCWP model using lower level WBS data. In addition, the second phase of this research investigates whether or not knowledge concerning lower level WBS activities can improve the analytical ability to predict EAC cost growth. The results indicate that lower level WBS data does not improve space program EAC accuracy in combination with the BCWP model. This research also finds that space programs contain a great deal of variability at lower level WBS activities making it difficult to draw comparisons across contracts.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies