Efficient Probability Sequences
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEFENSE RESOURCES MANAGEMENT INST
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A probability sequence is an ordered set of probability forecasts for the same event. Although single-period probabilistic forecasts and methods for evaluating them have been extensively analyzed, we are not aware of any prior work on evaluating probability sequences. This paper proposes an efficiency condition for probability sequences and shows properties of efficient forecasting systems including memorylessness and increasing discrimination. These results suggest tests for efficiency and remedial interventions for inefficient systems.
- Statistics and Probability