Automated Verification of Mesoscale Forecasts Using Spatial Statistics
WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE APPLIED PHYSICS LAB
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The APL atmospheric sciences group is working to improve forecaster performance at Navy operational weather forecast detachments afloat and ashore. This work encompasses broad research and technology development in areas of visualization, human factors, human-machine interaction, and model and forecast verification with an emphasis on mesoscale ensembles and visualization of uncertainty. The verification effort s long-term goal is to develop an automated, objective verification technique for assessment of very high-resolution mesoscale predictions which accurately accounts for spatially or temporally misplaced features, false alarms and misses Brown 2002. The overall objective of this effort is to develop a highly automated, rapid, object-oriented, mesoscale numerical weather prediction NWP verification tool for use by forecasters and model developers. The verification technique should consider distortion errors phasetiming, rotation, and stretching as well as the normal amplitude errors. It is intended to test the verification tool on the University of Washington Short Range Ensemble Forecast System SREF and with a version of the Navy COAMPS model implemented at APL.
- Statistics and Probability