The Predictability of Extratropical Transition and of its Impact on the Downstream Flow
KARLSRUHE UNIV (GERMANY F R)
Pagination or Media Count:
OBJECTIVES To analyze the representation in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System EPS of historical ET events in the western North Pacific using a combination of principal component and cluster analysis. To investigate the sensitivity of the EPS forecasts to the initial ensemble perturbations associated with the typhoon undergoing ET and to stochastic physics. To assess the variability in the structure of the low-level wind field during ET using results from idealized model calculations. To investigate the mechanisms by which the tropical cyclone modifies the downstream flow using idealized modeling and potential vorticity PV inversion.
- Physical and Dynamic Oceanography