North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Phase I: Statistical Analysis of Historical Extreme Water Levels with Sea Level Change
ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER VICKSBURG MS COASTAL AND HYDRAULICS LAB
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The U.S. North Atlantic coast is subject to coastal flooding as a result of both severe extratropical storms e.g., Nor easters and tropical cyclones hurricanes. The North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study NACCS seeks to quantify existing and future forcing for use in assessing potential engineering projects that would reduce flooding risk and increase resiliency. The study encompasses the coastal region from Virginia to Maine. Extreme water levels as a function of return period were estimated for 23 gages spanning the northeast coast region. Continuous parametric distributions as well as empirical extremal distributions were computed as part of the statistical analysis. The extreme water level results based on historical data are shown to agree well with those computed by NOAA. Return period results for a range of sea level rise scenarios are presented as mean distributions as well as 10 and 90 confidence limits. Estimates of future extreme water levels due to sea level change represent the expected levels at the end of the 100-year horizon between 2015 and 2114.
- Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
- Hydrology, Limnology and Potamology
- Civil Engineering