A Framework for the Statistical Analysis of Probability of Mission Success Based on Bayesian Theory
DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANISATION EDINBURGH (AUSTRALIA)
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The Mission Success Prediction Capability MSPC is a Model-Based Systems Engineering MBSE approach to mission planning, used for analysis of complex systems of precision strike air-to-surface weapons. This report focuses on developing a statistical method for evaluating the probability of mission success in these situations. Bayesian networks are used as a framework for calculation of the probability in question, and a general methodology for the evaluation is formed and demonstrated in this report.
- Statistics and Probability
- Air- and Space-Launched Guided Missiles