Accession Number:

ADA610732

Title:

A Framework for the Statistical Analysis of Probability of Mission Success Based on Bayesian Theory

Descriptive Note:

General document

Corporate Author:

DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANISATION EDINBURGH (AUSTRALIA)

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2014-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

21.0

Abstract:

The Mission Success Prediction Capability MSPC is a Model-Based Systems Engineering MBSE approach to mission planning, used for analysis of complex systems of precision strike air-to-surface weapons. This report focuses on developing a statistical method for evaluating the probability of mission success in these situations. Bayesian networks are used as a framework for calculation of the probability in question, and a general methodology for the evaluation is formed and demonstrated in this report.

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Air- and Space-Launched Guided Missiles

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE