The Effect of Stochastic Noise on Predictability
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION BOULDER CO CLIMATE MONITORING AND DIAGNOSTIC LAB
Pagination or Media Count:
Our long-term goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical prediction models of weather and climate. We shall concentrate on sources of prediction error involving interactions between physical phenomena having different timescales. We examine how inadequate representation of rapidly-varying i.e., stochastic atmospheric effects in General Circulation Models GCMs can systematically affect prediction on a variety of scales, and how errors arising from this inadequacy may be ameliorated. Concurrently, we develop useful, efficient and accurate methods of accounting for these systematic effects of stochastic forcing, and also provide methods for estimating the spread of ensemble predictions taking into account multiplicative stochastic effects.
- Numerical Mathematics
- Statistics and Probability