Real-Time Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using COAMPS-TC
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB WASHINGTON DC
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The demand for more accurate tropical cyclone TC forecasts with longer lead times is greater than ever due to the enormous economic and societal impact of these storms. There has been spectacular improvement in TC track prediction a three-day hurricane track forecast today is as skillful as a one-day forecast was just 30 years ago. However, there has been little progress in improving TC intensity and structure forecasts due to a variety of reasons, ranging from a lack of critical observations under high wind conditions and in the TC environment, to inaccurate representations of TC physical processes in numerical weather prediction NWP models. Advances in high-resolution TC modeling and data assimilation are thought to be necessary to significantly improve the performance of intensity and structure prediction. To this end, the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California, has developed the Coupled OceanAtmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones COAMPS-TC , a new version of COAMPS designed specifically for highigh-resolutionopical cyclone prediction.