Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change
WISCONSIN UNIV-MADISON COOPERATIVE INST FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES
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LONG-TERM GOALS. My long-term goal is to better determine the relationship between observed environmental wind shear and TC intensity change in order to improve prediction. OBJECTIVES. The primary objectives are to better understand the relationship between vertical shear and TC intensity using observations, and develop methods to quantitatively analyze the shear using highresolution satellite data. APPROACH. Our approach is to collect a large, multi-basin database matching TCs with coincident environmental shear fields developed at UW-CIMSS. These analyses incorporate the most advanced satellite wind observations. We plan to conduct a thorough investigation and statistical analysis of the tendencies in the shear vs. TC intensity. We will examine other parameters in this relationship such as latitude, storm size and potential intensity. From the statistical analysis, we hope to derive a formula or statistically based shear model that can be used by JTWC andor naval operational forecasters. Chris Velden, PI and Gregg Gallina, an MS student are involved in this project. WORK COMPLETED. The databases for the Western Atlantic, and EasternWestern Pacific basins have been assembled. Statistical analysis is underway on these datasets. Several case studies have been identified and qualitatively analyzed. RESULTS. The case study analyses suggest a relationship exists between environmental shear and time-lagged TC intensity change. The relationship appears to be a function of current and potential intensity, and the strength of the shear. Since the statistical analysis has just commenced, there are not any quantitative, conclusive results as of yet.