Accession Number:

ADA609367

Title:

Predictive Models to Estimate Probabilities of Injuries and Adverse Performance Outcomes in U.S. Army Basic Combat Training

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

ARMY RESEARCH INST OF ENVIRONMENTAL MEDICINE NATICK MA

Report Date:

2014-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

94.0

Abstract:

Negative training outcomes in U.S. Army basic combat training BCT are costly and difficult to prevent and manage. This report provides details from statistical models predicting probabilities of injury as defined by 5 separate injury indices, attrition from BCT, and failing the Army Physical Fitness Test APFT conducted near the end of BCT. The models were derived from multivariate logistic regression analyses of data from a study conducted at Fort Jackson, SC from 7 June-13 August 2010. The sample consisted of 563 recruits 414 men and 149 women. Data were assembled from demographic databases, baseline APFT, and a survey of self-reported lifestyle characteristics. Statistical models predicting probability of injury included gender, initial fitness test scores, raceethnicity, self-reported physical activity level prior to BCT, injuries sustained prior to BCT, height, and tobacco use. Models predicting probability of APFT failure and attrition included gender, initial fitness test scores, age, and tobacco use as predictors.

Subject Categories:

  • Personnel Management and Labor Relations
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE