Forecasting the Ocean's Optical Environment: Development of the BioCast System
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV
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The Bio-Optical Forecasting BioCast system is a model that provides the US Navy with short-term forecasts of the oceans optical environment. The forecasts are required to support a broad spectrum of naval operations, including mine countermeasure, anti-submarine, and expeditionary warfare operations. The BioCast system works by treating any geo-referenced surface ocean optical property provided via the US Navys satellite data processing systems as a prognostic state variable. BioCast will then ingest operational ocean model velocity forecasts and calculate the three-dimensional optical property pseudo-tracer transport. BioCast verification statistics generated via forecast comparison to next-day satellite images show superior performance over 24-hour persistence of composite satellite data. Future operational modifications to BioCast, such as complex internal transformation submodels, must demonstrate superior performance to the established benchmark metrics andor persistence over the operational forecast time horizon. Future BioCast applications will expand to include an interface with three-dimensional system performance simulation techniques that will predict how specific US Navy sensors will perform in the oceans optical environment.
- Physical and Dynamic Oceanography