Physics of Solar Flares and Development of Statistical and Data Driven Models
Final rept. 15 Jun 2010-30 Sep 2013
AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB KIRTLAND AFB NM SPACE VEHICLES DIRECTORATE
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Solar flares impact DoD and civilian space- and ground-based assets. The current state of predictability of solar flares, such as the probability of a solar flare occurring NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, and USAFAFWA are evaluated based on once-a-day measurement and resultant change of solar activity parameters, such as sunspot magnetic classification. With the advent of the USAF s prototype Improved Solar Observing Optical Network telescope, we have the capability to monitor rapid changes in characteristics of the solar chromosphere 1-minute cadence, photosphere 5-minute cadence and corona 10-minute cadence. We will also use the GOES x-ray data 1-minute cadence and other space data to complement these measurements. These data sources of past and current data will help us research, track and establish the relationship between the high-cadence variation of measured parameters at the various layers sunspot umbral and penumbral areas, plage index, magnetic flux, sequential chromospheric brightenings, development of flare ribbons, etc. and solar flares. We will research the seemingly heterogeneous and voluminous parameterized observational data to understand the measures needed for flare forecasts, incorporating such techniques as principal component analysis, discriminant analysis, genetic algorithms and neural networks. The goal is to demonstrate parameters that could be used in real-time operations to predict the near-term probability of flare occurrence. This research will help gain insights into physical mechanisms of the flaring proF298cess. It will aid in the development of physics-based solar flare forecast models. This report provides the final summary of the work performed under this AFOSR task. Individual and interim technical work has been published in peer-reviewed journals and presented in professional society meetings as appropriate.